Minerva Investment Management Society

Equity Research Report

Monte dei Paschi di Siena S.p.A. - Equity Research

· Equity Research

Open the PDF Download

Summary

The Equity Research Team is pleased to present its third and final FIG equity research report on Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena.

Founded in 1472 in Siena, MPS stands as a symbol of continuity and excellence in Italian banking. Despite the challenges faced during the 2010 crisis and the government bailout in 2017, the bank has maintained a solid position within the domestic financial system. Throughout 2025, MPS remained under close scrutiny due to uncertainties surrounding the outcome of the transaction with Mediobanca. Both national and international media closely followed the developments, which have now led to a confirmed integration and Mediobanca’s exit from Piazza Affari after 70 years.

Against this highly dynamic backdrop, we assessed the group’s prospects following the transaction, with a specific focus on synergy realization and post-acquisition integration. To provide a comprehensive valuation, we applied three different methodologies: an Excess Capital-adjusted Dividend Discount Model (DDM), a market-based valuation through comparable companies, and a Residual Income Model. The latter is particularly useful in assessing whether the bank enjoys a sustainable competitive advantage capable of supporting long-term value creation.

Through a pro-forma model, we evaluated the impact of potential synergies under three distinct scenarios (best, base, and worst case), with particular attention to the timing and extent of their realization, especially in the initial years following the deal.

Authors

Details

Published
24 February 2026
Division
Equity Research
Type
Equity Research Report
Pages
15
Authors
6

Cite this report

Minerva Investment Management Society (2026). Monte dei Paschi di Siena S.p.A. - Equity Research. Equity Research. https://minervaims.org/archive/monte-dei-paschi-di-siena-s-p-a-equity-research-2026

Related reports